December 31, 2014. Current Hazards. Horizontal arrows pointing left represent wind departures from average that are easterly, and arrows pointing right represent wind departures from average that are westerly. varies on a week-to-week basis). Be Festive And Merry With Friends At This Arkansas Pop-Up Holiday Bar, Horsebarn Park In Arkansas Is So Well-Hidden, It Feels Like One Of The State’s Best Kept Secrets, Watch The Arkansas Countryside Whirl By On This Unforgettable Christmas Train, Take A Ride On The Longest Zipline In Arkansas At Horseshoe Canyon Ranch, You’ll Be Pleased To Hear That Arkansas’ Upcoming Winter Is Supposed To Be As Mild As Last Year’s, You May Not Like These Predictions About Arkansas’s Wild Upcoming Winter, 7 Ways To Make The Most Of Arkansas’ Crazy Weather, 10 Thoughts Everybody In Arkansas Has When Winter’s Coming, The Farmers Almanac Predicts Winter 2020 In Arkansas Will Be Mild And Rainy. Drought is also present in parts of the Northeast, Ohio Valley, Hawaii, and Alaska. For example, 8 of the 11 strong and moderate events show the cool conditions in the Northern Great Plains, which is most winters, but not all. When the probability of the favored category becomes very large, such as 70% (which is very rare), the above rule for assigning the probabilities for the two non-favored categories becomes different. This does not necessarily imply that this winter will end up being snowier-than-normal. I’m very excited to present our first Winter Forecast 2020 – 2021, this is my favorite time of year, and this is my favorite video to make every year, I could hardly even wait this long to make it, I’ve been thinking about the upcoming winter for a few months now and just trying to develop some ideas for how it could go, and those … You can view the weather statistics for the whole month, but also navigating through the tabs for the beginning, the middle and the end of the month. NOAA image using data from ESRL and NCEI. in English and will soon be pursing her M.A. The MJO consists of two parts, or phases: one is the enhanced rainfall (or convective) phase and the other is the suppressed rainfall phase. Winter storms could dish out a whopping 55 to 65 inches of snowfall this season in Minneapolis, which sees 54.7 inches of snow on average based on data from 1991 to 2020. Science / Research The MJO was first discovered in the early 1970s by Dr. Roland Madden and Dr. Paul Julian when they were studying tropical wind and pressure patterns. For example, 9 of the 11 strong and moderate events show wetter-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest—though the intensity of the anomaly varies—which is most winters, but not all. Indeed, historic tornado outbreaks in 1974, 2008 and 2011 started during La Niña conditions. December 2020; January 2021; February 2021; March 2021; April 2021; May 2021 ... December 2020 Summary Precipitation Forecast Wetter Than Normal. On the other hand, stronger La Niña events (see below) are snowier across the Northwest, northern Rockies, western Canada, and the Alaska panhandle. Sci., 29, 1109-1123. Climate Variability: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These two phases produce opposite changes in clouds and rainfall and this entire dipole (i.e., having two main opposing centers of action) propagates eastward. The changes in rainfall and winds described above impact both the Tropics and the Extratropics, which makes the MJO important for extended-range weather and climate prediction over the U.S. and many other areas. This picture is consistent with long term warming trends over the United States. ENSO shifts the atmospheric circulation (notably, the jet stream) in ways that affect winter temperature and precipitation over the U.S. Locally, wetter-than-normal is slightly favored in southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin. December. Note: This forecast is valid as of Saturday night, Dec. 12, 2020. The storm track is in turn shifted northward across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes (2). Winter (December-February) temperature during strong, moderate, and weak La Niñas since 1950 (Winter 2017-18 not included), Midwest La Niña Winter (DJF) Average Temperature Departures (22 Winters since 1949-50), Author: Tom Di Liberto (October 12, 2017). Thankfully we can look forward to some additional degree drops as the year wraps up. Below-normal temperatures are favored in southern Alaska and from the northern Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains, with equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures in the remaining regions. The almanac does predict the highest chances for snow in late November and early January as well. Please select one of the following: is slightly favored in southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin. It’s fairly trivial to break the sample size in half, and compare the temperature patterns for the older half to the more recent half. The MJO can produce impacts similar to those of ENSO, but which appear only in weekly averages before changing, rather than persisting and therefore appearing in seasonal averages as is the case for ENSO. in Spanish. Here is a look at the winter weather prediction maps by month for the 2020 – 2021 winter. by: Arkansas Storm Team. Or, what we like to call it in Arkansas, second summer. A moderate to strong La Niña is favored to develop during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere autumn and peak out in either December or January. This was based more on climate trends than La Niña. Follow Us On Social Media, Weather Safety 2: animation). 2: Inside baseball: Further details of the ENSO relation. Besides those couple of cold snaps, the rest of the season will be rainy with warmer-than-normal temperatures. ... Arkansas, Tennessee), rainfall will be below normal, with the best threats for snow in the north of this region in late December and late January. for the Upper Mississippi River Valley The MJO can modulate the timing and strength of monsoons (e.g., Jones and Carvalho, 2002; Lavender and Matthews, 2009), influence tropical cyclone numbers and strength in nearly all ocean basins (e.g., Maloney and Hartmann, 2000), and result in jet stream changes that can lead to cold air outbreaks, extreme heat events, and flooding rains over the United States and North America (Higgins et al. Rochester, MN has had 7 warmer-than-normal winters and 8 colder-than-normal winters. From the AGU monograph on the North Atlantic Oscillation, 293, 85-89. The official release of the numbers comes from the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. Since 1985, the Upper Mississippi River Valley has seen 5 winters among the coldest third, 4 winters in the warmest third, and 2 winters near-normal. Fire Weather Precipitation tends to be below-average across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than average across the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. While precipitation impacts associated with La Niña are favored, La Niña is not the only player. You May Not Like These Predictions About Arkansas’s Wild Upcoming Winter. 25, 1297-1300. Hourly Weather Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather can also play a large part in how a winter turns out. The MJO becomes organized during late March through May as the green shading covers one half of the planet, and brown shades the other half all along as these areas move west to east with time. La Niña is associated with a retracted jet stream over the North Pacific Ocean. Lett. Enhanced rising motion is also observed over northern South America, while anomalous sinking motion is found over eastern Africa. Weather Forecast Office. Our white winters are few and far between, so unfortunately this year will not be one of them. Arkansas weather in December 2020. Emergency Management Posted: Dec 1, 2020 / 09:00 PM CST / Updated: Dec 1, 2020 / 09:07 PM CST. The retreat of the jet stream results in more blocking high pressure systems that allow colder air to spill into western and central Canada and parts of the northern contiguous U.S. At the same time, storm track activity across the southern tier of the U.S. is diminished under upper-level high pressure, which also favors milder-than-normal temperatures. An animated illustration that depicts the global scale and eastward propagation of these two phases of the MJO is shown here (Fig. The NAO exhibits considerable interseasonal and interannual variability, and prolonged periods (several months) of both positive and negative phases of the pattern are common. Because a weak La Niña means that the forcing from the Pacific is weaker than normal, it may imply other mechanisms (e.g. © Sam Edwards - Getty Images The Old Farmer's Almanac released its 2020-2021 winter forecast. The jet stream shifts toward the equator under these conditions, so the globe-encircling river of air is south of its average position. Besides La Niña, this winter will also be affected by: The following video highlights from NOAA's 2020-2021 Winter Outlook that provide seasonal predictions for temperature, precipitation, and drought. Get the monthly weather forecast for Little Rock, AR, including daily high/low, historical averages, to help you plan ahead. Life. This means that we will have a lot of snow … When La Niña develops across the tropical central/eastern Pacific Ocean, it can affect areas thousands of miles away, including the United States. (2012) and Allen et al. The Farmers Almanac Predicts Winter 2020 In Arkansas Will Be Mild And Rainy. However, these figures are based on about 20 different La Niña episodes, many of them from the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, and we have not removed the longer-term trends from the temperature and precipitation data used here. Waterfall chasers should be delighted to hear these predictions. You should join for your chance to be featured and to discover why there’s nothing better than Arkansas’ stunning nature. During particularly prolonged periods dominated by one particular phase of the NAO, abnormal height and temperature patterns are also often seen extending well into central Russia and north-central Siberia. At the top of the atmosphere, the winds reverse (i.e., diverge). In the enhanced convective phase, winds at the surface converge, and air is pushed up throughout the atmosphere. Wind Chill Climate Share your season predictions with us in the comments below! The predictability of seasonal snowfall may be somewhat similar to precipitation in that one or two big events can dramatically affect the seasonal average. These historical relationships along with guidance provided by a suite of computer models plays a strong role in the final outlooks. For the MJO to be considered active, this dipole of enhanced/suppressed convective phases must be present and shifting eastward with time. The weather in Arkansas in the month of december comes from statistical datas on the past years. Educational Resources However, the frequency, number, and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale. Differences between the two periods for the precipitation composites are much smaller and therefore are not shown here. 2000, Cassou, 2008, Lin et al. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) refers to an atmospheric circulation pattern over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. National Weather Service But there are some general themes in regard to snowfall in a La Niña winter, according to research by Dr. Stephen Baxter, a meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, published in 2017. Get the latest coronavirus (COVID-19) updates for the USA with current travel advice, statistics and online resources.. Below are average maximum temperatures at popular destinations in Arkansas in December. We can break up the snow pattern further and look at the weakest and strongest La Niña events. NOAA drawing by Fiona Martin. The changes in spring (March – May) are similar to those during winter, but somewhat weaker. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Niña events. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo (Old Man), anti-El Niño, or simply "a cold event" or "a cold episode". This bike rider we will call the MJO and he/she may cross the stage from left to right several times during the show. Many of Arkansas' best waterfalls only appear after heavy rains. Precipitation Reports figure based on analysis at CPC using Rutgers gridded snow data. Precipitation: Wetter-than-normal is slightly favored. Boaters Love Arkansas? She resides in Western Arkansas' Mountain Frontier but calls NWA home as well. The following four slides will show departure from normal temperature and precipitation so far in 2020 as well as existing drought conditions. Are you bummed out we’re probably not having a snowy winter? Weather in Arkansas in december 2020. 2009, Zhou et al., 2012, Riddle et al., 2013, Johnson et al., 2014). Observations Forecast; Almanac; Arkansas Storm Chasers; Closings and Delays; Alerts; Your Weather Photos; Weather Headlines; Weather Knowledge; Sports. Imagine ENSO as a person riding a stationary exercise bike in the middle of a stage all day long. Weather changes, so stay with Tulsa’s Channel 8 for the latest forecasts. Arkansas native, Carol Ann Carson, has written for OnlyInYourState for three years now. Madden R. and P. Julian, 1972: Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period. It’s officially fall y’all! There has been a fair amount of variability in the winter temperature and precipitation patterns during La Niña, but also that there are some clear tendencies for above or below normal temperature or precipitation in some regions. Video summary of NOAA's 2019-2020 Winter Outlook issued October 17, 2019. > La Crosse, WI > Winter 2020-21 Outlook . Let’s dig a little deeper and look at some of the characteristics within these two convective phases (Figure 3). Until recently, the only solid evidence showing that more tornadoes occur during La Niña conditions was for winter (January-March), when the ENSO signal is strongest, but average tornado activity is relatively low (Cook & Schaefer, 2008). La Crosse, WI has had 8 warmer-than-normal winters and 7 colder-than-normal winters. drawing by Fiona Martin. Climate, 13, 1000-1016. north, 3° below south) precipitation 5" (avg.) Farmer’s Almanac Fall and Winter Forecast. La Niña episodes typically last 9-12 months. Chance is a prediction of how ideal the conditions are for a storm to enter the region. AO phases are analogous to the Southern Hemisphere's Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), a similar pattern of air pressure and jet stream anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. Figure3:  The surface and upper-atmosphere structure of the MJO for a period when the enhanced convective phase (thunderstorm cloud) is centered across the Indian Ocean and the suppressed convective phase is centered over the west-central Pacific Ocean. Forecast Discussion River Stages Science, 287, 2002-2004. The Midwest can expect snow and cold temperatures, it says. Lavender, S. and A. Matthews, 2009: Response of the West African monsoon to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. While we continue to feature destinations that make our state wonderful, please take proper precautions or add them to your bucket list to see at a later date. Seasonal (May-July) averages of Gulf of Mexico SST can be predicted with some skill (Jung and Kirtman, 2016). If you split a persimmon seed from a ripe fruit and look at the form inside, it will predict the winter weather, according to folklore. Released: October 15, 2020 The typical U.S. impacts are warmer- and drier-than-average conditions across the southern tier of the United States, colder-than-average conditions across the north-central Plains, and wetter-than-average conditions in the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest/Northern California. Part I: Month-to-month variability. SkyWarn Widespread, ongoing drought is currently in place across the western half of the continental U.S. as a result of the weak Southwest summer monsoon season and near-record-high temperatures. Due to this, the CPC winter temperature and precipitation outlooks are consistent with typical La Niña impacts. Image Credit: Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington. Winter precipitation differences from average (inches) during La Niña winters dating back to 1950. Comparison of winter temperature differences from average (degrees F) between the earliest and most recent ten La Niña winters dating back to 1950. The Almanac predicts “a light winter for most of us here in the United States, with warmer-than-normal temperatures in the forecast for a large part of the country.”. The entire system shifts eastward over time, eventually circling the globe and returning to its point of origin. Thus, the mid-latitudes of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia generally see fewer cold air outbreaks than usual during the positive phase of the AO. Want a tour? Is the climate in Arkansas (in the United States (USA)) in january good? Overall, stronger La Niña events exert more influence on the winter climate pattern over western North America. And like for seasonal temperature and precipitation, knowing the state of ENSO is a pretty reasonable place to start. Arctic Oscillation) may be at play and is worth further investigation. Please Contact Us. As air sinks from high altitudes, it warms and dries, which suppresses rainfall. While increased tornado activity is generally associated with La Nina conditions, blaming this year’s high activity on the weak La Nina conditions would be exaggerating the strength of the historical relationship (footnote 2). The location of the convective phases are often grouped into geographically based stages that climate scientists number 1-8 as shown in Figure 1. Thank you! The graduate of University of Arkansas - Fort Smith, Carol Ann earned her B.A. The ongoing La Nina is expected to expand and intensify drought across the southern and central Plains, eastern Gulf Coast, and in California during the months ahead. They often noticed regular oscillations in winds (as defined from departures from average) between Singapore and Canton Island in the west central equatorial Pacific (Madden and Julian, 1971; 1972; Zhang, 2005). WeatherTAB Little Rock, Arkansas Help °C °F. The colder models bring a mix of rain, snow, and sleet to the lower elevations as far south as central Arkansas, but any accumulation appear highly unlikely at this time. Snowstorms will occur at times this winter. Climate Dyn., 40, 1749–1766. Dispatch / Law Enforcement Figure 1. The foliage is expected to be beautiful statewide but we’re a little disappointed in what’s ahead. The Old Farmer's Almanac just released its annual extended forecast for winter 2020-2021. Wetter-than-normal conditions are found in Indonesia, western and central Canada, and southeast Africa. Thompson, D.W.J., S. Lee, and M.P. Blue shading shows You Might Not Like These Predictions About Arkansas’ Wet And Mild Upcoming Winter. The effects are usually strongest in Northern Hemisphere winter. This “failure” of the typical pattern occurs because La Niña is never the only thing that influences the climate over the United States during the winter. The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, … Figure by; data from the authors. Or, what we like to call it in Arkansas, second summer. Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature is close to the part of the U.S. most strongly impacted by severe weather: warm Gulf of Mexico surface water in spring enhances low-level moisture transport and southerly flow and is associated with enhanced US tornado and hail activity (Molina et al., 2016). It is this entire dipole structure, illustrated in Figure 3, that moves west to east with time in the Tropics, causing more cloudiness, rainfall, and even storminess in the enhanced convective phase, and more sunshine and dryness in the suppressed convective phase. The coldest spells are expected to take place in early December, late January, and early February. However, it’s still winter and expect frigid and frosty weather! Meanwhile, drier-than-normal conditions are seen across central South America. However, no two La Niña winters will have identical precipitation patterns. Reduced snowfall is observed over parts of the central-southern Plains, Southwest, and mid-Atlantic. … She loves exploring the trails around the Buffalo National River and has yet to find a waterfall that wasn't her favorite. Wind Chill Schools This series of maps shows precipitation patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter season—December through February—since 1950 that coincided with La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The bad weather is predicted to start in January 2020. We’re enjoying a respite from the cold northern winds. Search; Search the Where And When site: Where And When. And some impacts are more reliable than others. All NOAA, NOAA's CPC Winter 2020-21 Outlook it is common for La Niña to last for two years or more. Reviews of Geophysics, 43, 1-36. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released weather maps that attempt to forecast weather for the 2020 – 2021 winter. 2020 Winter Predictions—Early Season Weather Forecast Released by NOAA. 0 Comment. Like temperatures, moderate and strong La Niñas can be highly variable with their winter precipitation totals. We’re aware that these uncertain times are limiting many aspects of life. Staff Forecasting, 29, 23–38. Public Information Statement This is the part of the forecast which is the most uncertain. Over the past 15 years, there has not been a trend for either warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal winter temperatures in our area. 1: The tornado environment index (TEI) and hail environment index (HEI) are functions of monthly averages of convective precipitation, convective available potential energy and storm relative helicity. Nature, 455, 523-527 doi:10.1038/nature07286 Letter. While temperature impacts associated with La Niña are favored, La Niña is not the only player this winter, so the temperatures could be highly variable throughout the winter. For more information, please visit the NCEI and Climate Prediction Center NAO pages. The greatest chances for warmer-than-normal conditions extend across the Southern tier of the U.S. from the Southwest, across the Gulf states, and into the Southeast. Free Long Range Weather Forecast for Little Rock, Arkansas. You'll receive your first newsletter soon! And  6 of the 11 events produced wet conditions in the Ohio Valley, which is slightly more than half, but far from a guarantee. Winter (December-February) precipitation during strong, moderate, and weak La Niñas since 1950 (Winter 2017-18 not included), Midwest La Niña Winter Winter (DJF) Precipiation Departures (22 Winters since 1949-50), Author: Stephen Baxter (November 21, 2017). In the maps, the CPC forecasts show the probability of the favored category only when there is a favored category; otherwise, they show EC (“equal chances”). Madden R. and P. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific, J. Atmos. Multiple locations were found. In general, the stronger the La Niña, the more reliable the impacts on the United States. Community Involvement Generalized Walker Circulation (December-February) anomaly during La Niña events, overlaid on map of average sea surface temperature anomalies. NOAA image using data from ESRL and NCEI. The Farmer’s Almanac’s Winter 2020 forecast is calling for a polar coaster outlook. This video and related map images can also be accessed online at Warmer and drier winters are more likely during La Niña over more southern states, and this is exactly where seasonal snowfall tends to be reduced (4). Toggle navigation. The last time that there was a La Niña winter was 2017-18 (weak). The Winter Ahead (Dec,2020 –Feb, 2021) National Weather Service Little Rock, Arkansas September 15, 2020. The foliage is expected to be beautiful statewide but we’re a little disappointed in what’s ahead. Future posts will focus on the details of how we monitor and assess the strength of the MJO, provide details on impacts and the reasons for those impacts, and describe the current state of MJO predictability. Stay out of the muck and curl up by the fire instead at one of Arkansas' cabins in the woods. They both tend to develop during the spring (March-June), reach peak intensity during the late autumn or winter (November-February), and then weaken during the spring or early summer (March-June). Also, there is a tendency toward below average snowfall over the mid-Atlantic, New England, and northern and central Plains, which is not seen during weak La Niña. As 2020 comes to a close, temperatures may be a bit colder than average compared to October and November. Regional (100-90W, 31-36N) totals of March-May tornado reports, hail events, a tornado environment index (TEI) and a hail environment index (HEI) expressed as percentage of their 1979-2015 average and conditioned on the ONI. Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. The 4 moderate La Niñas were either among the wettest third (3 La Niñas) or driest third (1 La Niña). Conversely, AO's negative phase has higher-than-average air pressure over the Arctic region and lower-than-average pressure over the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This was based upon both La Niña and recent trends over the past decade. Old Farmer’s Almanac Winter 2020-21 Predictions For Minnesota William Bornhoft 8/20/2020 A plan to sell a federal archives building in Seattle hits trouble: 'The DNA of our region is located there'